Monday, October 8, 2012

Remember the Alamo: SA Spurs 12-13 Preview (Pt. 1)

You’d think having 14 years of sustained success on the back of arguably the best power forward of all time, who carried the Spurs every one of those years (but one) to no less than 50 wins, while also winning four championships and reaching the conference finals three other times, would make people stop doubting—no matter how much father time takes his toll.

Despite all of that, very few people outside of Texas felt that the Spurs were championship material last year.

And yet, they absolutely were.



With hindsight being 20/20, it shouldn’t have been surprising. History does indeed repeat itself. The teams that excelled during the 1999 lockout shortened season were deep and featured a solid mix of veterans and youth. The Portland Trailblazers, Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat, and New York Knicks were a few such teams in '99 that fit the bill. Of course, another deep and talented squad was the eventual NBA champion Spurs.

During this past truncated season, the Denver Nuggets, Philadelphia 76ers, Pacers, and Utah Jazz were all somewhat surprising teams that found success because of quality depth. And, just like 14 seasons ago, the Spurs were once again a deep and talented team—so much so they finished with the best record in the West and tore through the end of the season on a 20-game winning streak including sweeps of the Jazz and LA Clippers in the playoffs as well as the first two games of the Western Conference Finals.

A dramatic reversal in momentum had the Spurs lose four in a row, thus ending their playoff run. But make no mistake, the Spurs had a very real chance of winning the championship last season.

During their winning streak, San Antonio looked nigh unbeatable with a sublime offensive attack that rivaled anything that Steve Nash orchestrated during the prime years of the Seven Seconds or Less Phoenix Suns.

The right extra passes. Wide open jumpers and layups. Precise cuts. Effective screens. Dives and rolls and slips oh my!

It was pure, unadulterated, glorious ball movement.

While earning a fifth place nod in the MVP voting was a bit of stretch for a player who only played 32 minutes a game last season, there is no question that it was Tony Parker who conducted the Spurs to the highest offensive rating in the league. That was no mirage. The 2012 Spurs were as deep and talented as any team in the Tim Duncan era.

And the band is all coming back for an encore performance.

While the core of Duncan (the best, most consistent player of the past decade), Parker, and Manu Ginobili is still an elite trio and will continue to carry the burden of leadership, they’ll play even fewer minutes this season as Greg Popovich has a talented collection of youth and experience littering his roster and can afford to rest his stars so they are fresh for the playoffs.

Regarding that experience, first up on the list is the newly re-signed Boris Diaw. To the casual observer or a Bobcats fan, it might seem odd that the Spurs wanted Diaw back, especially since he looked like a caramel Stay Puff Marshmellow man for most of last season. But get this, after Diaw was acquired in late March, the Spurs went 18-2 to close out the regular season, and rolled through the first two rounds of the playoffs on that aforementioned 20-game winning streak.

A motivated Diaw is the perfect stretch four to pair with Duncan—big enough to play defense against most fours, but nimble and versatile enough to guard wings, handle the point-forward, and stretch defenses with three-point shooting. While there is no way he shoots 60 percent from the 3-point line for an entire 82-game season, if he remains active and efficient, the Spurs' offense will hum. Remember, Diaw was the starting forward for a 2005-06 Suns squad that went to the WCF and was second in the league in offensive rating. And it's not like Diaw is old. He's 30.

Other veterans off the bench include deadeye marksmen and efficiency expert Matt Bonner, sweet shooting Gary Neal (42 percent on threes), and Patty Mills who had an excellent showing as the starting one for the Australian national team during the 2012 London Olympics.

Not sure how much Stephen Jackson has left in the tank (all of his numbers have been on the decline for three straight seasons), but he seemed re-energized after landing on the Spurs. He's in the last year of his contract, so he'll either be motivated to win (something he's shown to be in Black and Silver) or a disgruntled player to be moved in a trade. Though, his importance to the team can't be quantified in numbers. During the WCF, when things turned, the collective body language displayed a lack of fire from the Spurs. Jackson was the only one who played with a heightened sense of urgency, as well as a swagger and belief that the Spurs could win. Thus far in training camp, he's spearheading the team's movement to up the physicality this season. To not be soft. Unless he's traded for Anderson Varejao (who fills the defensive center need about as perfectly as possible and would instantly have the Spurs leapfrog the Thunder in the West pecking order), Jackson's value to the team as a backup three who can play a bit of small ball four can't be replaced.

And, of course there's Ginobili. Manu had an epic 34-game run last season, in which he blew away his career best field goal percentage by shooting 52.6 percent while leading all two guards in pure point rating and assist ratio. While it is highly improbable that he'll be that effective again, especially over an 82-game season, it does show that Ginobili is still a top-10 guard for 23-minutes a game—a skillset he invented and has now damn near perfected.

With his history of injuries and the talented depth the Spurs have on the wings, that's the ideal role for him to play.

Pt. II  

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