Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Going Out in Style: BOS Celtics 12-13 Preview

There's plenty of motivation for the Celtics this year. Not that Kevin Garnett or Rajon Rondo or Paul Pierce ever need extra motivation for anything related to basketball. But there’s plenty to go around anyway.

First and foremost is “that guy” whose phone number has been lost, whose name has been forgotten, and who the Boston faithful have so classlessly (but hilariously) called Judas Shuttlesworth. Ray Allen’s defection to the Miami Heat has become a rallying point for the Green in what is now a bitter rivalry.



Then there’s those other rivals, the old rivals, the one’s that are trying to tie the Celtics for the most franchise championships (whether you believe the Minneapolis rings count or not). The ones who just swapped a top five center for the Association’s best center and massively upgraded their point guard position with a 2-time MVP.

And, like always, there’s that collective chip still digging into Boston’s shoulders—like instead of relieving the pressure, the 2008 chip just added to the weight.

Heading into this season, no one is more motivated to shoulder the majority of that burden than Rondo.

The 26-year-old has come a long way since the Celtics won during his sophomore campaign. Over the past four years he’s been forced to prove himself as an equal to the big three (even to this here writer), endured incessant trade speculation, and struggled to adjust his attitude.

In last year’s playoffs, he raised his game to Herculean heights and officially assumed the mantle as the team’s best player. He might not be the crunch-time scorer and elder statesman. That’s Pierce. And he’s not the emotional leader. That’s Garnett. But the Celtics will go only as far as Rondo can carry them. Early on in training camp, he's been more aggressive offensively, taking that midrange 15-footer with regularity. If he can knock down that shot with regularity and improve his freethrow shooting to a mediocre percentage, then he'll be a legitimate MVP candidate this year.

He’s also stepped up in a big way regarding making this his team and assuming the leadership role. The majority of the roster spent the end of September in Los Angeles at Rondo’s behest. They scrimmaged, ate and hung out together, and even played some flag football. It was Rondo’s way of team-building. Of creating unity.

And it’s light years away from him openly bristling when a teammate missed a shot off of one of his passes.

His assessment that the 12-13 edition of the Cs is more talented than the championship team of 2008 is spot on. Having signed Courtney Lee and Jason Terry and drafted Jared Sullinger and Fab Melo in the offseason, the Celtics will also be welcoming back a healthy Jeff Green and Chris Wilcox (both who suffered through heart ailments last year).

Fitting in with the team’s braggadocio as well as its hatred for the Heat and Lakers is Terry, whose swagger and clutch shot-making ability were keys to the Dallas Mavericks winning it all two years ago. Terry’s beef with the Heat stretches back to 2006’s heartbreaking meltdown and he’s never had any love for the Purple and Gold—finally ripping out their hearts in the 2011 playoffs.

But like Pierce, Rondo, and Garnett, one ring hasn’t satiated Terry’s hunger. And while he’s not nearly the deadeye marksman that Allen is, Terry brings other faucets to the table—first and foremost being his embracing coming off the bench. Doc Rivers has made Terry the captain of the bench team, a role that Terry is owningcalling bench-only meetings and showing a great deal of pride in his role. That's the sort of veteran leadership vital to championship aspirations.

The bench will include Lee, Green, Wilcox, and potentially Sullinger and Melo. Lee is solid defensively, solid beyond the arc, and solid in transition. He isn't the shooter that Allen is (but then again nobody is). What Lee brings to the table, however, is an upgrade defensively and athletically. And, he's over a decade younger. 

Green has gotten a bad rap for most of his career, despite his willingness to do all of those things that we as idealist observers want professional athletes to do. When he was with the Thunder, Green sacrificed his position for the greater good (Kevin Durant). He evolved his game to try and fit into that position. And he never complained. What he got for his effort was a one-way ticket out of Oklahoma City. Green may never be a star (or worth the four-year $36 million contract he signed with the Celtics), but he is definitely a starter and a quality player. His advanced defensive metrics at the small forward position (his natural position) were excellent (albeit in limited minutes) and if the three-point touch he showed last year is for real, then he'll be one of the best, most versatile subs in the league. 

Two other more recent pick ups that could very well prove to be highly valuable are Jason Collins and Darko Milicic. Collins, while a disaster offensively (slow, can't/won't shoot, awful rebounder), is an excellent defender—the kind who is big enough to check Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum in single coverage for stretches. 

Milicic, who has flashed talent (especially defensively), has also proven to consistently lack motivation. Other than maybe Kobe Bryant's brain, there isn't another place in the League with as much motivation busting from the seems as Boston. Garnett will either turn Milicic into a whimpering shell of a human being, or a dangerous, rim protecting enforcer. Either way, should be highly entertaining.

Which brings us to Wilcox and why I am high on the Milicic signing and the Melo drafting. 

After a decade in the league as an explosive dunker who did little else offensively, and even less defensively, Wilcox finally bought into defense last season before being shut down. Whether that's Garnett, Rivers, or simply the Boston culture, Wilcox went from indifferent and awful, to physical and active. This development makes me believe the same is possible for the former No. 2 draft pick and this year's big man rookie project.

Melo, who has a knack for blocks, and Milicic, who has already proven to be a good defensive post presence and rim protector when motivated, will certainly benefit from wearing green. And if either or both can transform their potential into consistent effort, then the Celtics will finally have what it lacked last year—quality big men defenders behind Garnett. 

While the Celtics are bursting at the seems with talent and potential, there are a few negatives. The fact that Avery Bradley will miss at least the first two months of the season, certainly hurts. Bradley's savage ball hawking paired with Rondo's elite defense, transformed the Celtics into a defensive siege on the perimeter.

Of course, having Terry and Lee helps to mitigate Bradley's loss. 

Another potential negative is the ages of Pierce and Garnett. If you squint really hard, the loss of Pierce can be seen as endurable with Green and Lee waiting in the wings, but losing Garnett would be devastating. While he looked spry last year, he's never played center for an entire season. Even with his PT sure to be cut to at or below 30 minutes per game, the added banging and physical play of the center position could wear him down.

Which brings us back to this team's single greatest advantage over last year's squad. Boston is suddenly flush with depth—especially big men. Brandon Bass, Collins, Wilcox, Milicic, Sullinger, and Melo offer a variety of skills and specialties. 

In fact, Boston's depth is the reason why this team is scary dangerous and a legit championship contender. They can withstand injury and can afford to rest their two aging stars for the playoffs without a significant drop-off in quality or production. 

This team is deeper, more versatile, and more complimentary than any other team in the East and is a fantastic mix of veteran moxie and youthful fire and has a legitimate chance of earning home court throughout the Eastern conference playoffs. 

If Boston can reach the playoffs healthy, I like their chances against the Heat.  

Prediction: Celtics reach Finals. Rondo averages 17 ppg, 12 apg, 5 rpg, 2 spg and shoots 47 percent and finishes in the top-five for MVP voting.

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