Friday, October 26, 2012

2 Live and Die in LA: Lakers 12-13 Preview (Pt. 2)

Even if Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash learn to tango far quicker than any winner of DWTS, the real issue is going to be defensively. Yes, Dwight Howard is the cure to all defensive woes, breakdowns, and sub-par defenders. He elevated a lackluster collection of defensive players including matadors Hedo Turkoglu and ++Ryan Anderson, into a top five defensive team.

But, while many of his former Orlando teammates were mediocre to poor defensive players, none of them were as bad as Nash. Nash is a turnstile despite actually trying at this end. He is just simply not the necessary caliber of athlete to defend the one and he’s too small to guard the two.

Nash is going to get eaten alive on the defensive end and there isn’t anyone else on the roster who can cross match with him the way Grant Hill did last year and Raja Bell and Shawn Marion did before that. Metta World Peace, while in tremendous shape, is too big and slow to check point guards. Jodie Meeks is too slow. Chris Douglas Roberts, who has the athleticism and size, was cut a few days ago. And Bryant, while still a plus defender, is too old at this point to tackle the defensive stopper role night in and night out.

It gets worse as every team in the Association has at least one speedy guard adept at getting into the paint. Obviously there’s Tony Parker, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, and Deron Williams, but even the bottom-feeders like the Charlotte Bobcats have Ramon Sessions and Kemba Walker. Case in point, the Kings Isaiah Thomas went off for 20 points in the Lakers preseason finale, while Aaron Brooks had 16 the game before.

In fact, the only teams in the league that don’t have a quick point guard are the Lakers and Orlando.

And the sad reality is that defensively, Nash is no Jameer Nelson...

On most nights, Howard will be enough. He’ll roam the paint, block shots, and dissuade guards through sheer intimidation. But, come playoff time, against elite competition, Howard is going to get in foul trouble as Nash, and at times Bryant get burned on the wings.

There’s a reason why Nash has never been to the finals. Why he has never won it all. And, as awesome and transcendent as he makes an offense, his inability to guard anyone is devastating to a defense. The Lakers certainly aren’t the SSOL Phoenix Suns, but it is important to note that outside of the 2000 Lakers, no champion over the past 20 years has finished outside the top 10 in defensive rating.

There are other issues with this Lakers team. Namely the bench. I understand that with four dominant starters, Mike Brown should and will mix and match so that at least one if not two of the big four are on the floor at all times. Even still, the bench is weak.

I was a fan of the Antawn Jameson signing, mainly because it was for the veteran’s minimum and he averaged 17 points a game last season. But, troubling signs abound regarding how much he has left in the tank. Despite the high scoring average, Jameson’s shooting percentage has been on a sharp decline over the past three seasons. At 36, it has very little chance of reversing trend. And, it’s not like Jameson is a spot up shooter. When he joined Cleveland three seasons ago, he proved unable to catch and shoot, having been a creator his entire life. So, I’m not sure I see the “Nash Effect” having much influence on Jameson.

Outside of Jameson, the Lakers have an impressive collection of unimpressive players. Chris Duhon is the poster boy. It’s not that he’s a bad player. It’s just that, he doesn’t really do anything exceptionally well. Decent defender. Mediocre shooter. Can pass, but not a creator. Subpar ballhandler.

Steve Blake, like Jameson, has been trending down the last couple of seasons, though he’s shot it well during the preseason. But if his shot’s not falling, he provides little secondary value, unable to create shots for other players and while passionate on defense, he is not a plus defending the point.

Devin Ebanks has shown improvement this offseason, but again, he’s a nice player with no real outstanding quality. His upside is a more efficient version of what he already is—a less athletic, poor man’s Trevor Ariza.

Lakers faithful got all hyped up by Jordan Hill’s emergence last year. But, I remain unconvinced. It’s easy to grab rebounds during garbage time or when playing alongside a 7-footer who demands double teams, but what else can he do? He’s a subpar defender and an awkward offensive player. He can rebound, run the floor, and provide energy, but I’m not sure that’s worth $4 million a year especially considering Robert Sacre pretty much does the same things for $400,000.

Darius Morris has shown flashes, but he can’t shoot. Andrew Goudelock can only shoot—and not consistently at that. And while I like the potential fit of Darius Johnson-Odom because he shot well in college and is a heady defensive player, not sure he’s ready to play major minutes.

These are the types of bit players the Lakers will be relying on to fill out their squad.

But hey, Lakers fans can’t be too greedy. The Lakers still have four future Hall of Famers, one of which is in his absolute prime, the other three who are all still elite—though injury concerns are very real for Nash and Bryant (who will most likely miss the first game or two with a foot injury).

That said, if everything falls into place, if Bryant and Nash find a rhythm together, then this offense is going to be a thing of beauty. The most devastatingly effective will be the Nash/Howard pick and roll—but nearly as effective will be the Nash/Bryant pick and roll. This offense will also feature a ton of alley-oops: Nash to Howard; Kobe to Howard; Pau to Howard. So much so that Staples Center should just be renamed Lob City.

Bryant, if he plays within the offense, will get wide open shots that he hasn’t sniffed since his days with Shaquille O’Neal. The difference this go round is that he'll be receiving the ball from the game's premier setup man in his ideal sweet spots. In addition, Bryant is in a more mature place (one would assume) to take full advantage.

If Mike Brown can come up with some defensive schemes to hide Nash, and if Howard can stay healthy and out of foul trouble, then the Lakers could be a top-five defense.

For those expecting this squad to roll to 70 wins, please pull back your expectations. The Lakers are going to be at the front of the middle of the pack in terms of wins this year. There will be games Nash rests. There will be games Bryant rests. There will be games that Gasol and Howard rest. There will be other games that the team simply struggles to play together.

But the regular season is largely unimportant.

All that matters is that this team comes together at the end of the season and has gelled perfectly heading into the playoffs.It's all about the playoffs, and I suspect the Lakers, at worst, will be playing in the WCF.

Prediction: Lakers finish fourth in the West. Kobe averages 23 ppg on 48 percent. Nash averages 12 ppg and 8 apg. Howard leads the league in rebounding.

Part I

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