The NBA season kicks off in less than an hour. Before the season officially begins, I wanted to get in one last pre-season post.
With shifting rosters due to trades, retirement, or injury, and the natural progression of players getting better and worse as the years move on, here’s a look at five players that you might not have heard of that are poised to have career seasons.
Point Guard
Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks
I love me some Jeff Teague. He’s got oodles of talent. He can get to the hole and finish with the best (shot 60.7 percent in the basket area). Last year, he added a killer floater in the key. He’s athletic defensively (gets blocks and steals), if not yet disciplined on that end. Yes, as a floor general, he’s still learning, but I can’t help but see similarities to another young point guard. In Tony Parker’s third season, the speedy Frenchman averaged 14.7 ppg, 5.5 apg, and shot 45 percent from the field and 70 percent from the line. In Teague’s third season, the 24-year-old averaged 12.6 ppg, 4.9 apg, and shot 47 percent from the floor and 76 percent from the line. Parker’s offensive attack was more refined, but Teague blows Parker away in terms of athleticism. Teague was the NBA’s 10th most prolific pickpocket last year and registered a highlight block a week. And while his shot mechanics are limited, he was still a respectable 34 percent from beyond the arc.
The Hawks guard rotation is loaded, with Devin Harris, John Jenkins, Anthony Morrow, Louis Williams, and potentially DeShawn Stevenson all vying for playing time. But Teague has the most upside of the bunch due to his youth and the fact he doesn’t have one glaring weakness like the rest. Stevenson is inconsistent at best. Williams is undersized and struggles on defense. Harris is injury-prone with a limited perimeter game. Jenkins is a rookie and limited athlete. And Morrow is a terrific shooter who brings little else to the table. Furthermore, Teague was not offered an extension by Atlanta, which will add to his motivation to have a strong year. When in doubt, follow the money. He's just returning from an ankle injury, and shot poorly during preseason, but his assists were up. He appears to be learning the finer nuances of the game, pace, spacing, correct reads, etc. I predict he'll average 15 ppg, 6.5 assists, 2 spg, and shoot around 48 percent.
Shooting Guard
J.J. Redick, Orlando Magic
J.J. Redick has come a long way since he was named the AP National Player of the Year in his final season at Duke. Drafted 11th overall in 2006, Redick struggled to adjust his game to the speed and athleticism of the NBA during his first couple of seasons. But, through hard work, he’s turned himself into an all around solid player. Entering his eighth season, the 28-year-old finds himself at the peak of his career, on a rebuilding team. Yes, the Magic traded for Aaron Afflalo in the offseason and just guaranteed a roster spot for the highlight reel machine Dequan Jones, but neither brings to the table the consistency that Redick provides. He really has no holes in his game. He’s turned himself into an excellent ball handler, a heady distributor, a solid defender, and of course, a knockdown shooter. With Dwight Howard in Los Angeles and a roster full of young, unproven players, the Magic are in need of a steadying presence in the lineup.
GM Otis Smith handed out an overly generous $25 million contract to Jameer Nelson to fill that role, but I simply don’t trust Nelson—both his inability to sustain his production and his inability to stay healthy. Over his past five seasons, Nelson has missed on average 16 games per season. Enter Redick, who has the ball handling skills to sufficiently run point, the off-ball skills to get open off of screens and backdoor cuts (an offensive gameplan that Jacque Vaughn seems to be employing this season), and the ability to carry a significant scoring load that hearkens all the way back to his playing days at Duke. With Afflalo missing most of the preseason, Redick lit up the scoreboard averaging 13.7 ppg, 5 apg, and shooting a scalding 54 percent from the floor and 52 percent from beyond the arc in 28 minutes per game. Those lofty percentages will come down somewhat, but Redick’s role in the offense will not. Whether he’s a starter or comes off the bench as the team’s defacto sixth man, it seems the stars have aligned for Redick to have a career year.
Small Forward
Chandler Parsons, Houston Rockets
While there has been plenty written about the Rockets over the past few months, with the signing of someone named Jeremy Lin, and most recently the blockbuster trade that brought in James Harden, the best kept secret of the past two months has been the development of second year forward Chandler Parsons. Parsons doesn’t look the part, but he is an athletic, slashing wing who can shoot the long ball, handle the rock a bit, play some pesky defense, rebound the ball, and make things happen on the court in a Matt Barnes type way. His lone pock mark last year was his ghastly freethrow shooting (55 percent). He did shoot 83 percent from the stripe during preseason albeit in only six attempts, but the rest of his numbers make his questionable percentage at the line somewhat of a moot point. He averaged 11 points, 3.4 boards, 2.3 assist, 1.1 steals, and shot 47 percent from the field and 39 percent from deep during seven games of preseason. Because of his fill-in-the-cracks-game, he’s going to find a lot of easy buckets this year with Harden and Lin drawing most of the defensive attention. With that being the case, look for him to average around 13-14 points, 5-6 rebounds, 2-3 assists, and 2.5 bps (blocks plus steals) with improved percentages across the board. In particular, his three point shot has looked really good so far.
Power Forward
Kris Humphries, New Jersey Nets
Yes, I know. Really? My answer, absolutely. Not only has the ex-Kardashian improved each of his past three seasons, but this year, his team improved. In most cases, like the Lakers for example, a massive upgrade to your starting five will undoubtedly result in a reduced role. But, in Humphries’ case, his particular skillset will blend in perfectly with his new and returning running mates. Humphries has one elite skill, and that’s his ability to straight rebound the ball. He was tied for fourth in the NBA last year with DeMarcus Cousins and ahead of guys like Blake Griffin, Pau Gasol, Marcin Gortat, Tyson Chandler, and Joakim Noah.
This season, the Nets have added offensive firepower in trading for 20-point scorer Joe Johnson and bringing back a healthy 20-point scorer in Brook Lopez who played in only six games last season. Johnson is a volume jump shooter and Lopez has a paltry career rebounding average of 7.5. That said, Johnson and Lopez, along with Deron Williams and Gerald Wallace will provide plenty of firepower. Off the bench, the team has Marshon Brooks, Mirza Teletovic and Andray Blatche who all can get buckets as well. The way Humphries can contribute the most to the success of the Brooklyn Nets is via his elite talent. Wouldn’t be surprised if he averages a near double double, like nine points and 13 rebounds. While the points are a step backwards, his shooting efficiency should go up since he’ll no longer be relied upon to be the team’s second leading scorer. In the prime of his career at 27, he'll once again be a top-10 rebounder, and with improved efficiency, he'll enjoy the best season of his career (and even win some games too).
Center
Nikola Pekovic, Minnesota Timberwolves
A big, impossibly strong, bulldozer who works inside the key and has a knack for muscling his way to buckets, offensive rebounds, and the charity stripe. I read it somewhere else (can’t remember where) but it’s worth repeating—dude looks like he’d be right at home battling Roger Moore in an Ian Fleming movie. After a year of struggling to adjust to American hoops, Pekovic broke out last season scoring 14 ppg, pulling down 7.4 rpg (3.9 offensive), and shooting 56 percent. The best part of his game is the fact that he shoots 75 percent from the line. Pekovic is the perfect compliment to Kevin Love as Love hangs out on the perimeter quite often. With Love sidelined until at least mid-December, and the versatile Andrei Kirilenko filling in for him (I love AK-47 by the way, and believe the team won’t lose much with Love out), the paint will belong to Pekovic. He worked on his post moves and going left this offseason and will be a featured offensive player heading into the season. Look for him to average a double double in the early going with 16.5 ppg and 10.5 rpg.
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