Great Expectations: LA Clippers 12-13 Preview (Pt. II)

The NBA has really developed into a talent-rich league over the past half decade. Besides producing a better, more visually appealing brand of basketball, it has also increased the importance of depth. While I am skeptical regarding how high the Clippers can go with their new additions, the fact remains that the team is legitimately 11-12 players deep. The team's depth should propel the squad to a high seed, but is a mixed bag of super athletic youth still learning the game, and once productive players already in decline.

Once the playoffs begin, I'm not sure that will be enough to legitimately challenge for a ring this year.

I was not a big fan of the deal the Clippers gave Caron Butler prior to last season, nor was I convinced that he'd be able to come back from knee surgery and perform at a level that would elevate the Clippers into a championship caliber team. To say "Tuff Juice" is injury prone is a bit of an understatement. Before playing 63 of 66 games last season, Butler had averaged 58 games per season the previous five years reaching 70+ games only once.

While he started off last season playing well, he fell off as the games piled up. At this stage of his career, Butler is a one dimensional player--adept at hitting jump shots, but draws few fouls, rebounds poorly, and offers little in the way of creating for others. Butler will make $8 million each of the next two seasons.

While Grant Hill and Matt Barnes provide suitable depth behind Butler, I'd argue that based on last year's production, both Hill and Barnes are better players even though Hill is 40 and Barnes is a wildly erratic outside shooter. Barnes is actually an ideal fit as a starter, adding toughness, rebounding, athleticism, and activity to an already active and athletic front line. Of course, he won't start for a variety of reasons, the foremost of all being that he's too inconsistent. But it does speak to the decline of Butler and his ridiculous contract, that two players making the biannual exception and veteran's minimum performed much better than him last season.

Ronny Turiaf and Ryan Hollins are interesting pickups. When Turiaf actually takes the floor, he does plenty of positive things that don't show up in the box score. Unfortunately, Turiaf only played in 17 games last year, 64 the year before, and 42 in 2010. Mixing him with Barnes and Eric Bledsoe on the second unit will make for a feisty, scrappy, active bench team.

Hollins is the type of big man--mobile with springs--that Chris Paul magically transforms into a rotation player. In fact, if Hollins keeps things simple, CP3 will earn him a nice payday this offseason.

But the established veterans are not what will push the Clippers over the edge. Aside from Hollins, the rest of the veterans on the team have their best years in their rearview mirrors. Where the Clippers will get the biggest boost is from the development of their young players.

First up is Bledsoe. The 2010 NBA draft has turned out to be a fairly deep draft. If it were redone today, Bledsoe (who was taken with the 18th pick) would no doubt be one of the first seven players off the board (certainly taken over his former teammate Al Farouq Aminu). He is as explosive an athlete as there is at the point guard position. He reminds a lot of a young Kyle Lowry, but with more athleticism and explosion. In four games of preseason ball, Bledsoe is averaging 12 ppg, 6 rpg, 4 apg, 2 spg, and a block while shooting 51 percent from the floor. Yes, it's preseason, but he already looks light years ahead of last season--far more confident in controlling his tempo and picking his spots.

DeAndre Jordan is a freak athlete with a zest for shot blocking and dunking. Last year, it was obvious he had no clue how to play defense, and even less of an idea on the offensive end. Scary, since the team signed him to a four year $43 million contract. But thus far in preseason, he has looked like a different animal. He's now posting up and calling for the ball and utilizing a couple of new lost post moves (which means his repertoire consists of two moves). He's been very aggressive, which he should be. His freethrows remain his biggest problem, but if he and Blake Griffin continues to attack the rim, the other teams' fouls will pile up. Poor freethrow shooting never stopped Shaquille O'Neal or Wilt Chamberlain from being aggressive offensively. (Are you listening Andris Biedrins?)

Griffin, thus far in preseason, looks the same. He still goes full bore (unless he's gassed) and attacks the rim with reckless, oh-me-oh-my! abandon. He's still relentless on the glass. He's active defensively (if not always in the right spot). And, unfortunately, he still seems to glare and jaw off at the refs following every possession.

But as you look a little closer, you begin to see all of the subtle things he's worked on in the summer. The jump shot looks about the same so far, but there is no longer hesitation in taking it. If he's open, he's shooting. He's also refined his post moves. Sure, there are still times he tries to overwhelm with only his athleticism, but he's begun to really utilize head fakes and his footwork has noticeably improved. And while his stares and words with refs sometimes keep him from getting back on defense, he's really moving his feet and is getting in the right spots more often than last year.

Unfortunately, like his buddy Jordan and in spite of working to get rid of the hitch in his form, Griffin still can't seem to make his freebies. If Griffin could just make 70 percent of his freethrows he could be the second coming of pre-injuries Amare Stoudemire—just a far better rebounder and with more defensive intelligence. Over half a decade ago, Stoudemire averaged 25 and 9 while shooting 59 percent. With Paul running the show, Bad Blake's got that sort of potential.

Outside of atrocious freethrow shooting from the team's big men, injuries remain another troubling fact of life. Paul tore a ligament in his right thumb during the Olympics and just recently returned to game action after undergoing surgery this summer. Let's not forget, that he still has a balky knee which will remain a career-long issue.

Speaking of invaluable, all important knees, Griffin also hurt his (again) and ended up missing the Olympics because of it. He's looked good thus far, but he's suffered some sort of injury every year he's been in the league now and with the way he plays ball, there's every reason to believe he'll get injured again (knock on lots and lots of wood).

It's true that all teams must deal with injuries. The problem with the Clippers is that their injury concerns revolve around the knees of their two best players, who also happen to be two of the younger players on the roster.

Now, after having spent all of that time breaking down why the Clippers won't succeed this year, let me give you one reason why they just might. The Chris Paul Effect. Yes, he's that good. His ability to dominant a game by controlling its pace and flow, is really what sets him apart from an athletic luminary like Derrick Rose. His ability to make even the worst player on his team matter, is what sets him apart from Deron Williams. His ability to interact and lobby with the officials is what sets him apart from Rajon Rondo. And despite his short stature, his defensive ballhawking and uncanny knack for steals are what sets him apart from Steve Nash.

Best point guard in the game = always a chance.

Prediction: The Clippers lose in the second round of the playoffs…again. Chris Paul finishes third in the MVP voting.

Part I.