Heading out of the All-Star break and following their trades of their two most prolific power forwards at the deadline, talk focused around the Houston Rockets falling out of the playoff picture and being overtaken by a suddenly (and at times miraculously) hot Lakers team that has been led by Kobe Bryant, a man clearly on a mission.
But with a win against Golden State on Friday night, the Rockets are instead pushing their way towards the front of the pack, now only a game behind overtaking the Warriors for the sixth seed.
The two teams meet up again next weekend, but face vastly different competition over the next nine days. The Rox will only play three times, two games against the lottery-bound Phoenix Suns and a game against the injury-depleted Minnesota Timberwolves. The Warriors, on the other hand, face a surging Milwaukee Bucks squad that has won four of its last five games, a struggling but still tough New York Knicks team, a winnable game against Detroit, and a very tough matchup against the Chicago Bulls.
By the time the squads meet back up, it’s very possible that the Rockets will have already overtaken the Dubs.
All four teams fighting for the last three Western Conference playoff spots have their flaws. The Lakers have a lot of top shelf talent, but sorely lack a defensive identity—something that has made their late-game comebacks necessary. Even with Andrew Bogut returning, the Warriors lack an inside presence and are far too reliant on jump shots. Furthermore, the league seems to have figured out their defensive schemes as the Dubs once sufficient defense has fallen off a cliff over the past month plus. Utah is a solid team, but weak at point guard as Mo Williams has struggled upon his return and Jamaal Tinsley and Earl Watson are both third string guards (at best) at this point in their careers. It’s also possible that the Jazz just have too many players that need/deserve minutes and only 240 to dole out.
With one of the NBA’s top three offenses in terms of efficiency and points scored, and led by James Harden, one of the NBA’s most prolific offensive shooting guards, the Rockets seem the most comfortable with who they are and how they can best win from game to game. The Rox are fueled by an offensive attack that averages a league-best 107 points per game and will benefit down the stretch as they have the NBA’s second easiest schedule.
Despite trading away both their starting and backup power forwards at the trade deadline, the Rockets have endured those losses by the emergence of Donatas Motiejunas and by moving the ever blossoming Chandler Parsons into the four spot. The 7-foot-tall Montiejunas was a rising star in Europe before coming to the States. He has a nice post game, is a nifty passer, and is shooting .357 from beyond the arc. Parsons has been white hot over the past two weeks, averaging 24 points, four boards, and three assists on 66 percent shooting.
However, there are several factors working against the Rockets as well. First and foremost is the offense. While it has been the catalyst to their ability to win (since they are in the bottom third of teams defensively) it is also the reason I remain skeptical of Houston’s ability to sustain their success, especially once the playoffs begin.
First and foremost is the offense’s design and concept. Basically, it is basketball analytic’s dream. As described by Justin Kubatko of Basketball-Reference.com on ESPN:
“On offense, the Rockets have made a conscious effort to push the pace, averaging a league-high 96.3 possessions per 48 minutes. That represents an increase of 4.6 possessions per 48 minutes compared to last season, when Houston's pace factor of 91.7 was just slightly above the league average of 91.3.
Of course a change in pace does not mean much without an increase in efficiency, but Houston has been the league's third-most efficient offense, averaging 110.6 points per 100 possessions, an improvement of 5.1 points per 100 possessions over last season.
Significant increases in both pace and efficiency are not common. Since the 1979-80 season, there have been just six cases in which a team has increased its pace factor by at least 4.0 possessions per 48 minutes and also increased its offensive efficiency by at least 4.0 points per 100 possessions, a group the Rockets are on pace to join.
One of the main reasons for the uptick in Houston's offensive efficiency has been a focus on taking the most efficient shots possible, namely 3-pointers and shots close to the rim.
Last season, the Rockets took 24 percent of their shots from 3-point range and 25 percent of their shots within three feet of the rim, numbers that were comparable to the league averages of 22.6 percent and 28.7 percent, respectively.
But with the new backcourt of Jeremy Lin and James Harden , the Rockets have emphasized a different approach this season, taking 34.7 percent of their shots from behind the arc (second in the NBA) and 34.3 percent of their shots close to the rim (third in the league).”
This offense functions more like a gimmick as it has worked well against many teams during the regular season, but has been utterly stifled by elite squads. Case in point, of the six teams above the Rockets in the Western Conference standings, Houston has gone 4-11—two of those victories coming against the Warriors, who probably aren’t a better team than the Rockets at this point. If we discount the two games Harden missed and drop the Warriors wins out of the equation, a 2-9 record against the West’s best doesn’t scream playoff success.
The main reason, disciplined, well-coached teams utilize defensive schemes that are designed to take away three point shots and buckets close to the rim.
Another area of concern is that break-neck speed. None of Houston’s starting five has ever played a full 82-game season as a starter. Think about that. And yet, Lin is playing 33 minutes a night. Parsons is at 36 minutes. And Harden is averaging over 38. The wear and tear has already started to show, at least for Houston’s star backcourt as both Harden and Lin are dealing with nagging injuries to Harden’s knee and Lin’s ankle.
General Manager Daryl Morey did have a sneaky smart pick up in Aaron Brooks that could pay dividends down the stretch. On the surface, the Brooks signing seems superfluous, especially with how well back up point Patrick Beverly has been playing of late.
But what Brooks brings to the table is a high octane offensive repertoire capable of filling in for either Harden or Lin. He’ll allow the Rockets to rest both Lin and Harden for a game or two down the stretch and not have to worry about a severe drop-off in scoring.
Brooks, who is only 28 years old, averaged 16.8 points and 3.4 assists for Houston in the 2009 playoffs, for an undermanned team that stretched the eventual champion Lakers to seven games in the second round.
After missing most of last year’s NBA season because he was playing in China, Brooks found himself buried on the bench of a dysfunctional Sacramento team featuring way too many combo guards. However, he’s been money when given the opportunity to start, averaging 10 points and three assists on 49 percent overall and 41 percent from beyond the arc.
He’ll be a terrific add once he learns the intricacies of Kevin McHale’s offense (which, in all reality is simply a series of pick-and-roll actions that won’t be too hard to pick up), but it is somewhat worrisome that both Harden and Lin seem to be breaking down as the season is winding down.
I’m still not convinced that Harden is an elite player just yet—sticking with my initial evaluation of him.
Harden has certainly proven to be an exceptional player, but he is two dimensional, much like the Houston Rockets offense. He takes threes and/or inside shots, and gets to the line a League-leading 10 times a game, but has no middle game and plays apathetic defense. In the playoffs, teams will force him to beat them from mid-range and will make sure to attack him on the other end.
Harden has also been wildly inconsistent, his season having as many downs as it’s had ups. Case in point, he’s had nearly as many games shooting under 35 percent (19) as he’s had shooting 50 percent or better (22). In fact, in 10 of those poor shooting games he shot under 30 percent, including a miserable 3-19 (16 percent) against the Lakers, a 3-16 (19 percent) against the Thunder, and a 3-17 last night against Golden State. He’s somewhat evened out those shooting performances by hitting 29-36 from the charity stripe, but smarter defenses won’t foul as much, and all those forays to the line will eventually add up to a lot of wear and tear on his body—his knee troubles already an early indicator.
At the other extreme, he’s had some insanely efficient outings, including hitting 80 percent (13-16 from the field) against Portland, as well as his 46-point masterpiece against the Thunder where he shot 73 percent on 14-19 from the field. Which means as long as he’s playing, the Rockets should have little trouble of making the playoffs.
But anyone who thinks Houston has a legitimate shot at upsetting a team once it gets there, is going more off of feeling than fact.
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