Typically, whenever I set out to analyze trades, I try to put myself in the shoes of the general managers that are making them. Back in 2008, the popular belief was that Memphis Grizzlies’ general manager Chris Wallace had just completed the worst trade in NBA history by shipping off then one-time all-star Pau Gasol to the Los Angeles Lakers for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, Aaron Mckie, the draft rights to Marc Gasol, and two first round picks that ended up as Darrell Arthur and Greivis Vasquez. I felt differently. The team has made several missteps along the way—trading Kevin Love for OJ Mayo while also bringing on Antoine Walker and Marko Jaric, signing Hasheem Thabeet over pretty much anyone else in that draft, trading Kyle Lowry for only a late first round draft pick, trading Vasquez for Quincy Pondexter—but things have turned out for the better based on that trade.
The cap flexibility gained from Brown’s expiring contract allowed Memphis to sign Zach Randolph, while Marc Gasol has blossomed into a better player than his brother, and one of the three or four best centers in the league. The duo now forms the NBA’s most fearsome front court. The pick from the Lowry trade produced DeMarre Carrol, who was later traded for Shane Battier, who played a key role (including hitting the game winner of the franchise’s first playoff victory) in guiding the Grizzlies past the Spurs and into the second round of the playoffs in 2011.
All that to say, we won’t really know how any of the trades that went down yesterday will affect each team moving forward. The popular thought today, could be ultimately proven wrong a couple years down the road.
Which brings me to the Sacramento and Houston Deal in which Houston received: Thomas Robinson, Francisco Garcia, and Tyler Honeycutt. Sacramento received: Patrick Patterson, Cole Aldrich, Toney Douglas, and $1 million
I’ve tried to approach looking at this trade from a variety of angles. Regarding the Kings, there are those who are crushing this trade, while others feel it’s not so bad.
On its surface, it would seem that the Rockets “won” having received the fifth overall pick in the 2012 draft without sacrificing any draft picks, and still managing to cut future salary off of its cap. Whatever your take on Robinson and his struggles with scoring at the NBA level, the fact is he has 51 games under his belt in a little more than half a season—so we can’t really say one way or another if he indeed is not very good or if he’s struggled because he’s been in a seemingly dysfunctional situation.
According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Robinson is just the fifth top-five pick in the lottery era to be dealt during his rookie season. With the way rookie contracts are set up, and the way the collective bargaining agreement is now structured, talented rookies with potential have become one of the NBA’s most precious commodities—especially for small market teams that can’t afford to pay the luxury tax, let alone the repeater tax.
So, in today’s NBA, there really are only two justifications for giving up on a lottery pick this soon. The first is if a team is one player away from title contention. This does not apply to the Kings who are owners of a 19-36 record, losers of seven of their last 10, and nearly 11 games out of a playoff spot.
The other way a team’s ownership/general manager could explain trading away a lottery pick would be to move significant money off the books. This motive doesn’t really work for the Kings either, seeing as they saved themselves only $1 million in prorated salaries this season. Yes, they saved themselves nearly $9 million of Robinson’s comparative future salary, but Patterson will undoubtedly demand a raise when his rookie contract is up after next season.
In that light, trading away Robinson smells of desperation from an ownership in need of money, any money, right now.
But is that really all there is to it? Yes, the Maloofs are in dire need of money. Yes, the team is very close to being sold. Yes, the team is awful and management has made some terrible decisions (the most recent being the disastrous Jimmer Fredette draft/trade/ordeal last year). All of those things don’t take away from the fact the team got the best player in the deal.
Patterson is a starting caliber player today. He took a step back last year during his sophomore campaign, but has come on strong this season, even adding a very reliable three-point shot to his arsenal (36.5 percent). And while his rebound rate is atrocious, he’s a solid defensive player. Furthermore, he’s only 23 years old, so he’s got plenty of room for further development. I mean, is the 22-year-old DeMarcus Cousins a finished product?
Speaking of Cousins, unlike Robinson, Jason Thompson, or Chuck Hayes, Patterson will stretch defenses with his midrange and three-point shooting, which in turn should open up the paint for Boogie. (Of note, Patterson and Cousins were teammates at Kentucky, though any notion that this connection will instantly be a positive for Cousins is a bit overblown. Patterson admits that while they are friends, they aren’t extremely close.)
As for the rest of the trade, Aldrich and Douglas could be useful pieces. Yes, the popular thought (and likelihood) is that neither will be retained, but there is a possibility that one or both stay on especially Douglas. Douglas provides active, and at times stifling perimeter defense—a skill absent from the Kings guard rotation. Aaron Brooks, who now finds himself with a string of DNPs, has a player option for next season that he will surely opt out of. This could open the door for the 26-year-old Douglas to return.
While Isaiah Thomas is an excellent offensive player, his defensive limitations make him an iffy starter, and while Fredette has improved, any previous notion that he’ll be able to run point guard in the NBA has been laid to rest. People only remember Douglas’ disastrous couple of weeks starting for the Knicks while trying to run Mike D’Antoni’s system (which his skill set makes him unsuited to run), but Douglas has actually performed better as a starter throughout his career averaging 13.5 ppg, 4.4 apg, 3.1 rpg, on 43 percent from the field.
Is that a killer return for a top 5-pick? It doesn’t seem like it. That said, if the Kings were convinced that they made a mistake in the draft (and, really that is one of the most believable facts about this entire trade), then it wasn’t a bad idea to move on. How many top five picks have made millions of dollars and disappointed millions of fans based solely on the fact that they were top five picks? Just in the past seven years we have Marvin Williams, Andrea Bargnani, Adam Morrison, Tyrus Thomas, Shelden Williams (that 2006 class was awful), Greg Oden, Michael Beasley, Hasheem Thabeet, Tyreke Evans, Evan Turner, and Wesley Johnson. And those are just top five picks!
So, who’s to say that the Kings were wrong? We won’t know for at least a couple more years.
What no one seems to be talking about is the potential negatives on the Rockets side that could also sway the popular opinion on who won this trade.
Yes, the Rockets have a high lottery pick in Robinson who fills a need on the team (rebounding) and has the potential to be anywhere from an impact rotation player to an all-star if nurtured and guided. And while Garcia probably doesn’t have a future in Houston, his veteran experience and locker room presence will be invaluable for an extremely young, inexperienced squad making a playoff push.
That said, what if Robinson doesn’t pan out? What if he's more Marvin Williams than Kenneth Faried?
Has Daryl Morey done some wonderful things? Of course. Especially this season in which he turned Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb, two first round picks and a second round pick into James Harden. Thus far, Harden has been an absolute stud—one of the 20 best players in the NBA and a top-3 shooting guard. While, I have my doubts about Harden as a franchise player, it’s tough to argue against a man who just dropped 46 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists on the reigning Western Conference champs.
But, like with any other trade, we won’t know the full impact until years down the line. Jeremy Lamb could emerge as Harden’s equal, or even better, given his defensive upside. And given Sam Presti’s pristine draft history, those two first round picks could turn out to be impact players. In fact, Houston’s trade could have just set up the small market Thunder for the next five to 10 years.
So, until the Rockets actually win something of significance, I’m not going to laud Morey for a job well done. After all, under his regime, the Rockets have won one playoff series and have been to the lottery the past three seasons. This year, thanks to the unmitigated disaster known as the Lakers, Houston is a fringe playoff squad. But, even this season’s playoff hopes remain tenuous after the trade.
The Rockets just traded away their starting power forward, a key rotation player, and two other guys who have contributed to not only winning games, but also to team chemistry. They will be replaced by some combination of a rookie who has struggled to adjust to the NBA, a second year guard who has 120 total minutes of NBA game experience, a veteran playing for a new team for the first time in his career, and three other players who have a combined 45 games of NBA experience (Patrick Beverley, Donatas Motiejunas, Terrence Jones).
Chemistry has proven to be the deciding factor time and time again when it comes to winning. Before Wednesday’s trade, the Rockets had a ton of chemistry and were flowing well. Now, that chemistry has been wiped clean and will need to be redeveloped at a time when the Lakers have begun to find their own chemistry.
The trade may very well have set up the Rockets nicely for the future, but the present suddenly looks a lot less certain. And wouldn’t it be ironic if the Kings, who have become a better team today, knock the Rockets out of the playoffs? The two teams play each other twice in April.
Would missing the playoffs change popular outlook regarding who won the trade?
After all, not every evaluation needs to focus on future potential. The present can be just as vital. Especially for a team that has missed the postseason three years and counting despite “winning” a bunch of trades…
No comments:
Post a Comment