Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Kyrie Irving: Not Franchise Worth-It?

Many consider Kyrie Irving of the Cleveland Cavaliers to be the NBA’s next best point guard.

A 6-3 Chris Paul with a silky-smooth jumper.

His seemingly supernatural abilities remain in such rarified air, that he certainly has the potential to one day be the best lead guard in the NBA.

But, as his latest injury has shown, maybe, just maybe, he’s got a little too much Uncle Drew in him…

Call me crazy, but if I were Chris Grant, I would be a fool if I wasn’t at least putting out feelers around the league for what I could get for Irving in a trade.

Now, before Cavaliers fans jump down my throat, the notion is not an outrageous one. For all of his prodigious talent, there is no arguing that Irving is injury-prone. As a refresher, let’s quickly run down his injury history:

During his one year at Duke, Irving was on the way to being named the NCAA Freshman of the Year when he suffered a ligament injury to his right toe. He ended up playing in only 11 games.

During his rookie season in the NBA (the lockout shortened 66-game campaign), Irving played well enough to earn Rookie of the Year, but missed four games with a concussion and 11 with a sprained right shoulder.

This year, he’s appeared in only 51 games, missing 11 due to a broken finger, three more thanks to a hyperextended knee, and now will most likely be out the rest of the season (3-4 weeks) with a sprained left shoulder. And while he didn’t miss a game because of it, Irving did break his jaw this season too.

That’s a lot of injuries for a guy in only his second season.

I looked back at all of the best point guards over the past 25 years, and none of them experienced as much injury as Irving early in their careers.

The obvious first comparison is Paul, who many pundits have already drawn parallels. Paul missed four games his rookie year, then was out 18 games his second year (note: he only missed four total games over his next two seasons). The big difference is that Paul played two full seasons of college ball at Wake Forest before entering the NBA.

While I understand the Paul comparisons, I tend to think Irving’s most similar comp is Tony Parker who sets up his passing with his ability to score. Both maintain wizardry around the hoop despite lacking elite hops. Parker is better around the rim, while Irving is a better shooter, but I think they share more in common than Irving and Paul. That said, Parker played in 77 and 82 games his first two seasons.

Irving falls far short of iron men like Gary Payton, John Stockton, and Russell Westbrook who collectively missed two out of a possible 1,230 games over their first five NBA seasons. Irving has missed two games every month of his career.

Even point guards that we typically think of as injury-prone like Baron Davis, Anfernee Hardaway, Kevin Johnson, and Steph Curry all played games early on in their careers. BD didn’t miss any games his first three seasons. Penny missed five games over his first three. KJ missed three games his first two seasons. And Curry played in 80 and 74 games his rookie and sophomore campaigns.

How about some of Irving’s other contemporaries?

John Wall: 69, 66 (of 66),

Jrue Holiday: 73, 82, 65 (of 66)

Derrick Rose: 81, 78, 81, 39 (of 66)

Russell Westbrook: 82, 82, 82, 66 (of 66)

Brandon Jennings: 82, 63, 66 (of 66)

Rajon Rondo: 78, 77, 80, 81, 68, 53 (of 66)

Mike Conley: 53, 82, 80, 81, 62 (of 66)

Kyrie Irving: 51 (of 66), 49

Some of these players are destined to be greater than others, but none of them outside of Conley, played fewer than 65 games their rookie year. Furthermore, the ones that have consistently appeared in more games are those that are typically considered among the games truly elite.

In 2011, Westbrook played in one less game (99) than Irving (100) has his entire NBA career.

Look, I completely understand that Irving is only 20 years old and that popular belief is that it will take some time for him to build up strength in his body—that, as the years progress, he’ll be strong enough to withstand the punishment his body takes.

But, that excuse rings a bit hollow to me. After all, Holiday was 19 as a rookie. Rose, Wall, Westbrook, and Baron were all 20 as rookies. KJ was 21. And the flipside to that is what if he doesn’t? What if he is simply one of those players that can’t stay healthy? What if he’s a better version of Eric Gordon? What if he’s Brandon Roy?

Do the Cavs really want to invest their entire future on a guy who will be in and out of the lineup for 55-60 games a season?

If he were Dwyane Wade, perhaps. Wade, who himself has been injury prone throughout his career, was so good, that he could carry a mediocre squad on his shoulders to the playoffs.

Irving is good, like 23-points and 5.5-assists per game good. He’s also got stellar percentages and shown enough promise in this area that one could see him one day entering the prestigious 50-40-90 club. But his defense will never be on par with Wade’s, and while the Cavs have been admittedly awful, Irving hasn’t made that much of a difference over what Baron Davis was able to do in his brief Cavs career. Davis won 40 percent of his 15 games in Cleveland, Irving’s won 34 percent of his 100 games.

Those are some small sample sizes for sure, but Irving’s only got small sample sizes to work with.

The fact that I’m even discussing trading Irving is a direct result of the new collective bargaining agreement, one ironically championed by Cavs owner Dan Gilbert. Because all of the restrictions and harsh tax implications, most teams can’t afford to make any long term mistakes. From all accounts, the Hornets are kicking themselves for matching Phoenix’s qualifying offer to Gordon.

Irving is still under his modest rookie scale contract for the next two seasons, but if the Cavs could right now grab top shelf talent based on Irving’s projected ceiling, they’d be stupid to not at least consider it.

What about Rajon Rondo and Jared Sullinger? Or Ty Lawson and Wilson Chandler? Jeff Teague and Josh Smith? Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner? Westbrook straight up?
Maybe those deals don’t have the star appeal that Irving brings to the table. Uncle Drew has after all generated over 25 million views on YouTube.

But winning trumps star power. And the Cavs need to be committed to building the best team possible.

Again, there is no doubt that Irving is a phenomenal talent, that he is capable of great things. He’s shown so much already in only 100 games—the buzzer beater against the Raps, the shooting clinic during the Rising Stars Challenge last year, not to forget his daily assortment of ankle-breaking drives and dipsy-do-dah finishes.

But health matters. It absolutely matters. Especially if that player is your franchise player.

Irving, is only in his second season, and thus far, the youngblood can’t stay healthy.

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