It’s New York, so of course there’s going to be lots and lots of love for the Knickerbockers in a year in which they currently own the best record in the Eastern Conference. There’s talk of Carmelo Anthony for MVP. There’s talk of best team in the Association. There’s talk of dethroning the Heat.
But, talk is cheap. Analyzing the situation, trends, and historical precedents, reveal what should be more realistic expectations for this Knicks team.
Before the season began, I wrote about my disbelief in this team and their collective potential. You can read part one here and part two here. My thinking remains unchanged despite the fact the Knicks have been an absolute clinic in terms of ball movement, spacing, and outside shooting—raising them to the second best offensive rating in the league (according to Basketball Reference).
There's been early-season comparisons to the 2011 Dallas Mavericks team that won it all two years ago. The similarities are obvious, with Tyson Chandler and Jason Kidd playing major roles on both squads, and both teams utilizing an unselfish, pass-first offense.
But the differences should not be overlooked either. First and foremost, the veterans the Mavericks had on their team, while older, were all still near the primes of their careers. The same can't be said for New York, who fields the oldest team in NBA history.
Secondly, Dallas was ranked 8th in defensive rating, and 9th in field goal percentage against, and was even better than that heading into the playoffs. This Knicks team is middle-of-the-pack in terms of defensive rating (15th) and are ranked 26th in field goal percentage against. Over the past 15 years, only the Lakers won with such a mediocre defense. The difference, of course, is that the Lakers had the luxury of having the two best players at their respective positions on the team. The Knicks don't even have one.
Which brings us to our third point. Carmelo Anthony is no Dirk Nowitzki. You can break down their numbers and put them side-by-side and they do look very similar (Dirk: 23 ppg, 7 rpg, 2.6 apg, on 51 percent from the field and 39 percent from three; Melo: 28 ppg, 6 rpg, 1.8 apg, on 48 percent from the field and 46 percent from three). The biggest difference is that in terms of production, 2011 was actually a down year for Nowitzki. And, Nowitzki is one of those rare players that has consistently played much better during the playoffs then the regular season. On the flipside, this year has been without a doubt the best of Anthony's career. And, unlike Dirk, Anthony is one of those players who has played much worse during the playoffs.
Speaking of which, let's take a look at Anthony's season thus far.
Much can be made of Anthony’s offensive brilliance this year. Make no mistake, his 45 percent from beyond the three point line and his dedication to taking that shot far more frequently than all the long twos he used to take, has him flirting with a 60TS% (.595) which would blow away his career average of .545.
But this surprising development must be clumped together with a few caveats. First, throughout his career, Anthony has never averaged 30 points a game in any season. He did have two seasons in which he was over 28 per game, but in those two seasons he only played in 65 and 69 games respectively. To believe that Anthony can sustain his current level of production for an entire season, when we have a decade’s worth of data proving he can’t, is a leap of faith to say the least. Especially since we’ve seen these sorts of stretches from Anthony before.
He’ll get hot for a month or two, score on everyone in a variety of different ways, be hailed as the league’s best scorer, and then fall back down to earth to the point that his career averages out to 24 ppg on 46 percent shooting. Anthony is going to have to prove that he can play at an elite scoring level for an entire season because there is a real possibility that his scoring prowess regresses—especially if his injuries catch up to him or his three point shot comes back down towards his career norms.
For all the talk of Anthony’s supposedly improved defense, he’s actually defending five points worse than last year according to defensive rating. In fact his 107 defensive rating is spot on with his career average. He is also posting by far the worst assist rate of his career and isn’t getting to the line as much as he has in his other top scoring seasons.
Let’s put aside the fact that Lebron James and Kevin Durant have better stats and have done more things offensively for their teams. Let’s put aside the fact that both are excellent defenders while even an engaged Anthony is mediocre at best. Let’s also put aside the fact that Anthony has already missed four games while Durant and James have played every possible game. Furthermore, let’s set aside the fact that Durant is averaging 39 minutes and James is averaging 38, while Anthony is averaging 36.
Putting all of these indisputable facts aside, Anthony isn’t the MVP of the league because he’s not even the MVP of his own team. Tyson Chandler has played every Knicks game. He has been the glue in terms of holding up a team of weak defenders to 15th in the NBA in defensive rating. His 70 percent from the field leads every other eligible player in the league by nearly 10 percent. And he's one of only 11 players in the league averaging a double double in points and rebounds. So, unlike Anthony, Chandler is making a huge difference for the Knicks on both sides of the ball and is the team's most indispensable player.
Case in point, arguably the Knicks finest win this season, a 112-92 shellacking of the defending champion Heat, came with Anthony in street clothes. In fact, while the Knicks sit atop the Eastern Conference with a 19-6 record, they’ve actually played a far easier schedule (.489 strength of schedule) than Miami (.535), Brooklyn (.545), and Atlanta (.515). A rundown of their impressive wins amounts to the two victories over Miami.
Even those wins come with one major caveat--the fact the Heat have switched up their lineup over the last week to include Joel Anthony (and exclude Rashard Lewis), a move that has propelled them to three straight wins and boosted their defensive efficiency back up to last year's standards. It will be interesting to see how the Knicks fair against this Miami defense as opposed to the one that was last in the league in defensive efficiency up until last week.
The Knicks have lost to the Grizzlies and the Bulls and Houston twice. In fact, the only legitimate championship caliber team the Knicks have beaten outside of Miami, is a hobbled Lakers squad that was missing 2/5ths of its starting rotation (Steve Nash and Pau Gasol) and San Antonio in a game Melo shot 3-12 from the field. Even their other quality wins aren't that quality, as one of their victories over Brooklyn came while Brook Lopez was in street clothes. The Knicks have beaten the Pacers, sans Danny Granger, Dallas sans Dirk Nowitizki, and the 76ers sans Andrew Bynum. All of their other wins have come against teams that won't be making the playoffs.
So, the record, at least in the early going, has been somewhat of a mirage.
I would venture to say, so has the play of many of the Knicks other players as well.
The law of averages is a law for a reason. That's why I want to see Anthony sustain his shooting stroke for an entire season. That's why I want to see journeyman, D-Leaguer Chris Copeland play more than five games before I believe in his 22.7 PER. The same can be said about Jason Kidd. Kidd is a career .350 three point shooter over 19 seasons. He had been leading the league in the category at over 50 percent this year. But over his last three games, Kidd has made only 6-27 (.222 percent) and has fallen back down closer to where he historically has always been. I'd lean towards betting on a percentage closer to .350 than .500 going forward. And that drop off in shooting efficiency makes Kidd not nearly as valuable, since he brings little else offensively to the team (scoring-wise).
Also, age needs to be brought into the equation, especially considering the 39-year-old Kidd has already missed time, the 38-year-old Marcus Camby has missed the entire season battling plantar fasciitis, and the 38-year-old Rasheed Wallace is now wearing a walking boot.
Adding to the injury concerns is oft-injured Amare Stoudemire.
Which brings us to another major sticking point. Even if Stoudemire is used off the bench and it works (as I suggested in my preview the Knicks should do), what about the return of Iman Shumpert? Knicks fans are excited about his defensive presence, but the Knicks are winning on the offensive end with terrific ball movement, lights out shooting from deep, and efficient shot-taking.
Shumpert was a disaster as a point guard last year. He is not an intuitive passer. And he struggles to shoot from deep. How do you fit that into the system? Especially since no one knows how much athleticism Shumpert has lost coming off knee surgery.
The Knicks have definitely outplayed my expectations up to this point, but the season is barely a quarter of the way completed. There are still many games to be played, and before we start nominating a team or a player for awards and seedings that won't be official until five months from now, I'll stick with my early season projection.
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