It's New Year's Eve. In light of 2013, here's 13 trends/storylines to look forward to in the coming year.
13. Problem Children. Who will Dwyane Wade “inadvertently” hurt next? I’m shocked the league suspended him just one game for that karate kid move on Ramon Sessions’ family jewels. I mean, this is D-Wade we’re talking about. (Sarcasm). Especially with the kind of recent history he’s had. (Even more sarcasm). As for who’s next...my bet? I’d say Wade’s waiting until Charles Barkley gets assigned sideline reporter duties at a Miami home game. Another ball striker, DeMarcus Cousins, has continued to be a headcase—earning a team-sanctioned suspension for blowing up on his coach one day, and then a few days later blowing up for a triple double. No idea what the Kings should do, but if they trade him, please do so to a team that has a bit more structure than the paper mache Kings organization. And how about that Michael Beasley? As the Phoenix Suns prized offseason signing, Beasely has done nothing new with his fresh start. It’s still the same old Beasley. Lots of shots, awful efficiency, non-existent defense. It’s bad enough that he makes the Suns 12 points worse defensively when he’s on the court. But it’s entirely unforgivable for a player touted as an offensive catalyst to make his team’s offense three points worse while he’s on the court. I feel for Phoenix fans. You went from the penultimate team player who sacrificed his heart and soul for the team, to the exact opposite—all in one fateful week in July 2012.
12. Deron Williams. With a trail of bodies growing on the daily, Williams has no one left to bury but himself. Wrist injury or not, in order for him to justify being a franchise player, he needs to set the kind of tone that franchise players set. Look at what Chris Paul has done for the Clippers. Look what Steve Nash did for the Suns (and is now doing for the Lakers). Superstars make their teams better. Even for a struggling team, a superstar is the one who leads the way. So far, no one is sure where the Nets are going. Brooklyn is decent offensively (rated 9th in the NBA), but bad defensively (rated 20th). And for all the talk of being the best backcourt in the NBA before the season began—neither of the Nets highest paid players have done anything to back that noise up. Feasting on a couple of bottomfeeders over the past week, Williams finally got his shooting percentage above .400 for the first time in over a month. He still has the potential to be an elite point guard, but he’ll need to play like last year’s 2-weeks-of-glorious-Linsanity from here on out for anyone to even mention his name in the same breadth as Paul ever again.
11. The Minnesota Timberwolves Dilemma. It’s not like they have been playing poorly. They are 6-4 in their last 10 games and are currently sitting at eighth in the western conference. That said, it’s interesting to note that the team’s two franchise players have been outplayed by a pair of Russians. Yes, Kevin Love has been hampered by a wayward shooting stroke (most likely a result of his coming back early from a broken hand) and Ricky Rubio is still finding his way back from knee surgery, but Andrei Kirilenko and Alexey Shved have been dynamite. Kirilenko is probably the team’s MVP, putting his fill-in-the-cracks game to its ultimate use. Since entering the starting lineup, Shved is averaging 12 ppg and 7 apg on 43 percent from the field. While I have no desire to jump to a massive conclusion regarding playing time, it will be interesting to see how Rick Adelman incorporates everyone into the game plan once everyone is back to full health. Well, that’s assuming full health is possible for an Adelman-run team. Poor guy has had the worst luck with injuries...
10. Avery Bradley’s Return. If he is anywhere near the ball-hawking beast defensively who straight embarrassed Jameer Nelson last year, Bradley will vastly improve Boston’s defense. Last year, the team held the opposition to 3.6 fewer points with Bradley on the court and an improved Boston defense will improve the offense (the reverse of the Lakers). For the entire Kevin Garnett era, Boston has been an elite defensive team that was efficient on offense, but didn’t put up a lot of points. Last season, they led the league in defensive rating. This year, Boston is ranked 13th. With a 23rd offensive ranking, Boston has no shot at winning anything of significance if at least one of those ranks doesn’t vastly improve. Though a bit undersized, the Bradley/Rajon Rondo pairing has speed, length, athleticism, and defensive chops to push Boston back up the defensive ranks. As Boston showed last year, a top-3 ranked defense has the ability to go very far in the playoffs—especially if a few things go their way.
9. Rajon Rondo’s Play. In my last post, I neglected to mention Rondo as a potential candidate for 2015’s best point guard in the league award. A few reasons? He’s already 26, he’s not a scorer by nature, and despite improvement, he is still a subpar freethrow shooter which makes closing out games tough. That said, he does so many other things so well so often, that it was irresponsible of me to not even at least mention him. What Rondo will need to do moving forward is figure out how to find the right balance of scoring and distributing. Coming up with the Big Three of Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, Rondo never needed to score. Instead, he found the best way to balance scoring opportunities for everyone else. That has served him and the Celtics well the past half decade (he’s been a top-5 assist man the past five years and leads the league in assists this season), but with Allen gone, Pierce in rapid decline, and Garnett limited to 28 minutes a night, Rondo will need to step it up in terms of scoring the basketball. I could rattle off stats when Rondo scores this many points, the team has this record—but I think those kinds of statistics are arbitrary at best, misleading at worst. What I can say with confidence is that the Rondo era in Boston has begun in earnest. No other point guard excels at rebounding, passing and defense the way that Rondo does. His closest comp is an at-his-peak Jason Kidd. If #9 learns to shoot freethrows at an 80 percent clip, and can continue to improve his jumper and his 3-point shot, then he’ll give Westbrook a run for his money as the best point guard in three years. He’ll also give the underachieving Celtics a shot at the conference finals this season.
8. Andrew Bogut's Defense. Raise your hand if you thought the Warriors would be this good this year? Mark Jackson, you can keep jiggling, but everyone else with their hands up, please put them back down. For a team that has been missing Bogut and Brandon Rush, and has been playing rookies Draymond Green and Festus Ezeli heavy minutes, it’s amazing that Golden State is one of only eight teams in the Association with a winning percentage over .670. Outside of Atlanta (more on them in a bit), every other team on that list is considered to be legitimate championship contenders. The Warriors without Bogut have already proven to be a much improved defensive team (ranking 12th, right in front of Boston) and win with superior ball movement and terrific bench play. So, what will happen when Bogut, a top-5 defensive center, is added into the mix? With this starting lineup, every single player can pass and score. Moving Ezeli back to the bench with Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry, would make an already terrific bench, that much more terrific. (Side note: I’d argue that the pairing of Stephen Curry and Jarrett Jack is the best point guard tandem in the NBA thus far—with all due respect to Chris Paul and Eric Bledsoe…since Bled only plays 18 minutes a game). Even with the return of Bogut still uncertain, a pair of games against the red, white, and blue hot Clippers this week should give everyone a better idea of just how seriously we should be taking Golden State.
7. Utah’s rotation. February 15th is now a little over a month away and it will be interesting to see which Jazz players are moved and who the team gets in return. Thus far, the Jazz have underperformed the expectations the team built for itself after last season’s surprising run to the playoffs. There are those who are unsure why the team continues to play Paul Milsap, Al Jefferson, and Randy Foye (all guys on expiring deals) big minutes despite middling results—especially considering the wealth of youth and talent on the bench in Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter, and Alec Burks. There are plenty of reasons for this including showcasing those three players for potential trades as well as a strong organizational desire to make the playoffs. But the real reason is that the Jazz have always done things a certain way. Rewarding young players with lots of PT just because they are talented is not one of them. I actually like this approach, especially considering all the young players who are given the keys to their franchise’s car without ever having earned that responsibility. While this can be frustrating and even demoralizing—the truth is, frustration and failure are vital in the maturation process. The Kings DeMarcus Cousins and Tyreke Evans are prime examples of players who were given too much too fast without earning it. In a year or two, when Favors and Kanter are considered one of the best frontcourts in the NBA, it will be because they were forced to earn it. Case in point, Kanter came into camp this year in phenomenal shape and is beasting in his limited playing time.
Part. II
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