This month's ESPN the Magazine features Cavs starting point guard Kyrie
Irving on the cover. So, of course, the day after Christmas, ESPN posted a piece by Amin Elhassan detailing why he'll be the best point guard in three years.
Another reason not to read ESPN--Henry Abbott and his Truehoop network. Case in point, Elhassan's story was followed up with an article by five members of the Truehoop network regarding who they believe the best point guard will be in 2015.
Another reason not to read ESPN--Henry Abbott and his Truehoop network. Case in point, Elhassan's story was followed up with an article by five members of the Truehoop network regarding who they believe the best point guard will be in 2015.
Overwhelmingly, Irving
was the choice (with a Derrick Rose and a Chris Paul thrown in for good
measure).
I bring this up because Russell Westbrook
got no mention.
Without question, Paul is currently the best point guard--just
the way he controls the game, the way he is the picture of “cool.” Whenever he
is on the floor, Paul is analyzing all aspects of the game at all times and
interacting with his teammates, the other team’s players, and the referees in
order to have the most information possible for him to make the best decision
possible.
Other point guards are faster, or more athletic, or better
passers, or better finishers—even though Paul is top three in all of those
categories save athleticism—but none of them have that ability to completely
control an entire game. Not night in and night out anyway.
But moving forward, Paul will have a hard time remaining the
league’s best lead guard because he lacks that aforementioned elite
athleticism. Pre-knee surgery, he’d give any athlete a run for his money, but
post surgery, the outlook is far less sunny. And because he really can’t
improve his play through getting smarter, or improving weaknesses (he really
has none other than his height), it is unlikely that he'll improve. In addition, Paul is
listed at 6’1, but is probably closer to 5’11, and the historical precedent for
small guards heading into their 30s shows that all have seen a steep dropoff in
play after turning the big 3-0.
As for Derrick Rose, no one knows how he will return from
his own knee surgery. Paul notably lost athleticism—especially in his first
year back (which made the argument for Deron Williams being a better point guard
at that time a legitimate one). But put together a list of the smartest NBA
players of all time, and Paul just might be the valedictorian.
Rose—not so much.
Not yet anyway.
Not yet anyway.
Yes, when healthy, he has the ability to control and dominate quarters, but his entire game is predicated on his freak athleticism.
That first step sets up everything. His ability to contort his body, hang, and
finish through contact, are all dependent on his ability to get high up in the
air. If he loses a split second off his lateral quickness and a couple of inches
off his vertical--suddenly we’re looking at a better passing Tyreke Evans.
Furthermore, Rose’s jump shot (which is a literal jump shot
as opposed to Paul’s set shot) is heavily reliant on his athleticism. So, a
shaky jumper becomes even shakier with a recovering knee.
Sure, if Rose’s athleticism returns to pre-injury heights,
then it is a very real possibility that in three years, he will be the best
point guard in the NBA. He was already showing signs of being able to orchestrate an offense. But knee injuries are tricky, especially for players
that rely on a skill set similar to Rose’s.
Which brings me to Kyrie Irving.
What he is is a player that brings to the table that aforementioned
“cool” that Paul can’t help but exude on the court. He also brings lights out shooting,
a penchant for making the right play, and an ability to dictate the tempo and
pace of a game. He’s not at Paul’s level yet, but even in only his second year,
it is obvious that he has CP3 potential.
Even still, I would pick Westbrook over him as the best
point guard in 2015 because Westbrook has the potential to be even better than CP3. In fact, he has all of the tools to be something we have never seen before. A point guard who averages 25 and 10? Never happened...yet. Westbrook could be that guy, especially playing next to Kevin Durant.
Let’s get the easy stuff out of the way. Westbrook has played
in 339 of a possible 339 regular season games in his career. Irving missed 15 games last season (in a
truncated season) and has already missed 11 games this season. He missed all
but 11 games of his lone season at Duke to injury as well. This could certainly
change over the next three seasons. Irving
could be the picture of health. But when realistically attempting to project the future, we
have to go with facts first and then base projections off of those facts.
The fact of the matter is, all indications point to Irving as an
injury-prone player.
Another easy difference--Westbrook could possibly be, pound-for-pound, the most athletic player in the Association. In fact, it is his freaky athleticism mixed with his uber competitive nature that are at the root of everyone's opinion of the 24-year-old.
Those who support Westbrook, see how his hops allow him to get to balls that other people can't, allow him to throw down spectacular dunks, allow him to recover for game-saving blocks. They see how his end-to-end speed creates fastbreak opportunities when none are there. They see his lateral quickness and aggressiveness and see a lockdown defender in the making. They see his uncanny strength and know he can just as easily check wingers as he can point guards. And they see his work ethic and desire for greatness, and think Kobe Bryant Jr.
But it's this same athleticism that makes his critics wonder why he shoots so many jumpers instead of taking it to the hole (a la Dwyane Wade), makes them question why he isn't already a lockdown defender. His desire to be the best is viewed as delusions of grandeur. In fact, because so many things come easily to Westbrook thanks to his athletic prowess, his critics only see the moments when his athleticism gets him into trouble. Mainly, his miscues are magnified because of how extreme his highlights are. He either overthinks the situation or immediately reverts to relying on his athleticism to get him through tough times. And athleticism without thought, coupled with unbridled passion--often result in plays like the one against Miami.
In fact, that play is a microcosm of Westbrook. With the clock winding down, Westbrook somehow, someway came up with the offensive rebound off a Durant miss. With seven seconds left, he tried to score it himself, but also missed. A questionable non-call on Wade prompted the emotional former Bruin to slam the scorer's table which resulted in a technical. That sealed the game.
Few players come up with big offensive rebounds, or big blocked shots, or timely steals, in the ways that Westbrook does. But, he has this frustrating habit of finding a way to completely counteract all of the positive plays he makes with head-scratching decisions.
Westbrook is already a top-15 player in the Association. Critics look at his dreadful shooting percentage and the fact he leads the team in shot attempts per game, and they shake their heads in disgust.
I would point to the fact that Westbrook has a career high assist rate while also having a career-low turnover percentage. Or the fact the Thunder are +3 points better offensively with him on the court and -3 points defensively when he's not playing. Or the fact that his defensive effort has gotten much more consistent to the point head coach Scotty Brooks thinks Westbrook should be considered for an all-defensive team this season. Or the fact that Westbrook leads the team in assists. Or the fact that the Thunder have the second best record in the west.
While his PER is worse this year, and his points-per-game is down, make no mistake, Westbrook is a much improved player from last season.
The mistakes from game to game are frustrating, but those are the types of things that great players learn to eliminate from their games. Some players, like Irving, come into the league already able to play mistake-free ball. Their ceilings are much lower, because without elite athleticism, there's really no place else to go. Irving must improve defensively, but there's only so much he can do on that end. Smarts and effort are what make solid defenders. But take smarts and effort and mix them with quickness, length, strength, and jumping ability and that's a recipe for an elite defensive player.
Irving can become a solid defender, but he'll never be elite.
Westbrook has that potential. A lockdown, ace defender in a league dominated by point guards. A guard who can get to the bucket at will offensively. Once he learns how to control the pace of a game, he could be the best guard in the league.
In fact, last year one of his teammates (rumored to be Kendrick Perkins) said he thought Westbrook believes he's better than Durant. To me, that's all you need to know about him. That, in and of itself, makes me believe that Westbrook has what it takes to not only be the best point guard in the league, but perhaps the best player.
A long time ago, I witnessed a cocksure 17-year-old kid come into a situation where he was forced to concede much of his game to another player that was arguably the best in the game. That 17-year-old kid worked hard, worked through constant criticism from fans, the media and his own teammates and coach, was told he shot too much (still is told that), was told he was crazy to think he was the best player in the game, and suffered through a brutal learning experience during the playoffs in which he utterly failed.
Seventeen years later, with rings for ever digit on his right hand, that kid is now undeniably thought of (from fans and critics alike) as one of the top 10 players of all time.
Westbrook has that same Bryant mentality.
So, when it comes to projecting which players are going to excel in the coming years, you can either fawn over the kid with the grown man's game and a kid's body.
Or you can bet on the kid with the grown man's body, who is only being held back because he has not fully learned how to play a grown man's game.
Another easy difference--Westbrook could possibly be, pound-for-pound, the most athletic player in the Association. In fact, it is his freaky athleticism mixed with his uber competitive nature that are at the root of everyone's opinion of the 24-year-old.
Those who support Westbrook, see how his hops allow him to get to balls that other people can't, allow him to throw down spectacular dunks, allow him to recover for game-saving blocks. They see how his end-to-end speed creates fastbreak opportunities when none are there. They see his lateral quickness and aggressiveness and see a lockdown defender in the making. They see his uncanny strength and know he can just as easily check wingers as he can point guards. And they see his work ethic and desire for greatness, and think Kobe Bryant Jr.
But it's this same athleticism that makes his critics wonder why he shoots so many jumpers instead of taking it to the hole (a la Dwyane Wade), makes them question why he isn't already a lockdown defender. His desire to be the best is viewed as delusions of grandeur. In fact, because so many things come easily to Westbrook thanks to his athletic prowess, his critics only see the moments when his athleticism gets him into trouble. Mainly, his miscues are magnified because of how extreme his highlights are. He either overthinks the situation or immediately reverts to relying on his athleticism to get him through tough times. And athleticism without thought, coupled with unbridled passion--often result in plays like the one against Miami.
In fact, that play is a microcosm of Westbrook. With the clock winding down, Westbrook somehow, someway came up with the offensive rebound off a Durant miss. With seven seconds left, he tried to score it himself, but also missed. A questionable non-call on Wade prompted the emotional former Bruin to slam the scorer's table which resulted in a technical. That sealed the game.
Few players come up with big offensive rebounds, or big blocked shots, or timely steals, in the ways that Westbrook does. But, he has this frustrating habit of finding a way to completely counteract all of the positive plays he makes with head-scratching decisions.
Westbrook is already a top-15 player in the Association. Critics look at his dreadful shooting percentage and the fact he leads the team in shot attempts per game, and they shake their heads in disgust.
I would point to the fact that Westbrook has a career high assist rate while also having a career-low turnover percentage. Or the fact the Thunder are +3 points better offensively with him on the court and -3 points defensively when he's not playing. Or the fact that his defensive effort has gotten much more consistent to the point head coach Scotty Brooks thinks Westbrook should be considered for an all-defensive team this season. Or the fact that Westbrook leads the team in assists. Or the fact that the Thunder have the second best record in the west.
While his PER is worse this year, and his points-per-game is down, make no mistake, Westbrook is a much improved player from last season.
The mistakes from game to game are frustrating, but those are the types of things that great players learn to eliminate from their games. Some players, like Irving, come into the league already able to play mistake-free ball. Their ceilings are much lower, because without elite athleticism, there's really no place else to go. Irving must improve defensively, but there's only so much he can do on that end. Smarts and effort are what make solid defenders. But take smarts and effort and mix them with quickness, length, strength, and jumping ability and that's a recipe for an elite defensive player.
Irving can become a solid defender, but he'll never be elite.
Westbrook has that potential. A lockdown, ace defender in a league dominated by point guards. A guard who can get to the bucket at will offensively. Once he learns how to control the pace of a game, he could be the best guard in the league.
In fact, last year one of his teammates (rumored to be Kendrick Perkins) said he thought Westbrook believes he's better than Durant. To me, that's all you need to know about him. That, in and of itself, makes me believe that Westbrook has what it takes to not only be the best point guard in the league, but perhaps the best player.
A long time ago, I witnessed a cocksure 17-year-old kid come into a situation where he was forced to concede much of his game to another player that was arguably the best in the game. That 17-year-old kid worked hard, worked through constant criticism from fans, the media and his own teammates and coach, was told he shot too much (still is told that), was told he was crazy to think he was the best player in the game, and suffered through a brutal learning experience during the playoffs in which he utterly failed.
Seventeen years later, with rings for ever digit on his right hand, that kid is now undeniably thought of (from fans and critics alike) as one of the top 10 players of all time.
Westbrook has that same Bryant mentality.
So, when it comes to projecting which players are going to excel in the coming years, you can either fawn over the kid with the grown man's game and a kid's body.
Or you can bet on the kid with the grown man's body, who is only being held back because he has not fully learned how to play a grown man's game.
No comments:
Post a Comment