Monday, September 24, 2012

Deconstructing Andrew Bynum (pt. 3)

Data from last season shows the opposite of the eye test regarding whether Bynum can carry a team or not. According to John Hollinger at ESPN.com, Bynum spent 20 percent of his time playing without Kobe Bryant or Pau Gasol last season (384 minutes). Hollinger’s advanced stat PER indicates that Bynum put up identical numbers and efficiency with a 23.2 PER without Bryant and Gasol, and a 23.1 PER with them.

Of course, Bynum was usually the first starter to sit, and he’d usually come in with the bench squad in the second quarter—meaning, a good many of his 384 minutes without Bryant and Gasol came against other teams’ bench units.


The eye test and rudimentary stats were much more telling. Bryant missed seven games towards the end of the season to recover from a laundry list of injuries, the most severe tenosynovitis in his left shin. During that stretch, Bynum’s offensive shots jumped from around 12 to almost 20, but his efficiency went down the toilet. He had been shooting 58 percent up to that point in the season including 64 percent in the month of March.

Without Bryant, Bynum shot 47 percent over those games, a percentage that was actually boosted with a 12-14 showing against the Golden State Warriors who have routinely been one of the worst defensive teams in the league but who were exceptionally bad that game since they were in full-blown tank mode. The centers Bynum faced were a D-League showcase of Mickell Gladness, Mikki Moore, and Jeremy Tyler. Subtract that scintillating shooting performance, and Bynum shot 42 percent without Bryant in the lineup.

The team did go 5-2 in those seven games including a spectacular win against San Antonio in which Bynum had a career high 30 rebounds. But, the evidence was clear. Bynum struggled to create offense for himself.

His problems on offense are myriad. He is slow getting down the floor and establishing post position, oftentimes burning valuable seconds off of the shot clock. When he does establish the post and receive the ball, he takes too long to get his balance, using several dribbles to feel out his man and figure out what he's going to do (on a quick tangent, has there ever been another “dominant” player who fell down and lost his balance as much as Bynum?)

Once he's decided on how to proceed, he’ll either drop step towards the baseline and try and muscle up a layup, go towards the middle of the key for a short hook, or fade back and throw up a little 8-9 footer.

I saw maybe a handful of times where he utilized some sort of counter move if his original decision wasn't there. Admittedly, he looked really good pulling these moves off, but those moments were too few.

Bynum put up all-star numbers because he got plenty of easy baskets every game from lobs and or offensive rebounds. This reputation he has for being the best offensive center in the game is way off base as is talk of him being the second best, let alone best center in the Association.

The supposed offensive advantage Bynum has over Howard is not supported by the eye test, advanced stats, or regular stats. Is Howard’s offensive game ugly? You bet, but it has been devastatingly effective and efficient. Whether you look at offensive rating, PER, or plain old boxscore stats, Howard is the better offensive player. In fact, the only real area where Bynum is better than Howard is at the line.

Bynum has yet to finish in the top 10 in rebounds or score 1,200 points in a full-length season.

I’ve laid down all of that information to say that Bynum could fare better this year due to the addition of Wright, Richardson, and Young who were brought in to rain threes and spread the floor for Bynum to operate—an attempt by the Sixers to emulate the style of play that took the Magic to the NBA Finals three years ago.

All three shot in the high 30s from beyond the arc in 2011—and all of them would have instantly been the Lakers best three point shooter last year. But they come with their own potential problems as all three are best suited to play small forward—a position that has been gift-wrapped to Evan Turner. Regardless of what you think of Turner, and the opinions run the gamut, he will be the starting small forward for this team next season and will get every chance to succeed.

Which means Wright, Richardson, and Young will be fighting for playing time as the starting shooting guard/back-up three.

If the starting five is Jrue Holiday, Richardson, Turner, Spencer Hawes and Bynum, the Sixers will run into the same problems the Lakers did last season. Holiday shoots triples well enough (38 percent last year), though he didn’t take nearly enough, and Richardson is great in catch and shoot situations. But the rest of that starting lineup mirrors the 2011-12 Purple and Gold squad. Turner has shown that he is unable to make and unwilling to take threes. Hawes is the poor man’s Pau Gasol—able to space the floor and pass from the high post. But his lack of mobility and poor three-point shot will not create the space Bynum needs.

And as previously mentioned, because of how long it takes Bynum to figure out what he’s going to do once he catches the ball, whoever is guarding Hawes or Turner can easily double down which will amplify Bynum’s penchant for turnovers (whether it’s dribbling off his foot, getting it swiped by a second defender, stumbling and losing the ball, or simply falling down).

Coaching should alleviate some of these problems—including perhaps starting Thadeus Young in place of Hawes at some point this season—but I fear coaching could be part of the problem as well.

Doug Collins is an excellent coach, to a point. He’s had a history of taking young teams and turning them into playoff contenders. He led a young Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen to the Eastern Conference Finals, improved both the Pistons and then later the Wizards by 18 games in his first seasons with the teams, and led the Sixers to a playoff series victory last season for the first time since 2003.

On the flipside, Collins has a history of over-coaching his players by nit-picking their every mistake and flaw. And Bynum has not been the most receptive player to coaching, let alone over-coaching. He stopped training with Kareem Abdul Jabbar when he felt he had learned enough, and he tuned out Phil Jackson at various points, despite Jackson’s unmatched record. He also had many issues, including outright defiance, with Mike Brown—the ultimate player’s coach.

I remain concerned about how Bynum handles the first game he is benched for Kwame Brown because he missed a defensive rotation for the fifth time in a game. At what point will Bynum simply tune out Collins?

What I predict for Bynum this year is a year of growth. One in which he’ll struggle to adjust. I believe the Sixers will be hard-pressed to make the playoffs and are closer to a 7-8 seed than a 3-4 seed. Of course, I could be wrong.

Bynum could come into a new city (he’s from Jersey, only a short distance away) and acquaint himself smoothly—though Los Angeles to Philadelphia is quite the culture shock.

The plasma therapy injection that he received in Germany could revitalize his knee—reports are that he “feels very good.” He could be super motivated and come into camp in the best shape of his career and play every possession like it’s his last. He could play the season unfazed by his upcoming contract. After all, he has spent the better part of the past five years connected to constant trade rumors.

He could buy completely into Collins’ abrasive form of coaching and finally be moldable after years of doing things his way. He could embrace the idea of being the top dog, and start leading by example instead of avoiding huddles during timeouts. And the added spacing he receives due to competent three-point shooters could open up enough space for him so that he can operate and make teams pay for sending doubles.

If all of that happens, he could very well end up as the best center in the league. He has that sort of potential.

I just don’t see all of that happening. Especially for a 24-year-old who has struggled with maturity and who has never led a team or played a full season as a full time starter.

I think he’ll struggle…like most people in a new situation, with new responsibilities, and new coworkers tend to.

Prediction: Bynum will be an all-star, but the Sixers will labor to make the playoffs. He’ll average 19 ppg, 10 rpg, 2 bpg, and shoot 50 percent.

For Part 1, click here.
For Part 2, click here.


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