Gone is Joe Johnson. With him, the painful-to-watch and increasingly less effective “Iso-Joe” offense—not to mention the nearly $90 million and four seasons still owed him.
Gone is Marvin Williams. With him, the stubborn notion to continue his employment solely because he was drafted over Chris Paul and Deron Williams all those summers ago.
Gone is the flotsam known as Vladimir Radmanovic, Kirk Hinrich, and Jason Collins—all useful players in their own right, but players that served no purpose in the Hawks’ plans moving forward.
Gone is Tracy McGrady (though, to be fair, the real Tracy McGrady hasn’t been around since 2008). Also gone is Willie Green (who I will be watching closely this year to see what he does that has earned him 226 starts during his NBA career).
In is Devin Harris, who had a bounce-back season last year, improved his passing, and who will both push Jeff Teague for the starting role, and ably play alongside him (despite similar skill sets) in a small, but speedy, attacking two-guard set.
In is Louis Williams, who was Philadelphia’s leading scorer, go-to closer, and subsequent runner-up to the 2012 Sixth Man of the Year award.
In are Kyle Korver and Anthony Morrow, two of the best shooters in the league who both have shot better than 41 percent for their careers behind the arc. Add to these two proven commodities the enticing shooting ability of rookie John Jenkins (who shot 44 percent from three last year at Vanderbilt), and the can-get-white-hot-at-any-time stroke of DeShawn Stevenson, and the Hawks could potentially have the NBA’s best collection of 3-point bombers.
I have to say, I love what GM Danny Ferry has done.
While the New York Knicks, Brooklyn Nets, and Philadelphia 76ers have been touted as quasi-contenders in the East behind the Heat, Celtics, and Pacers, I think the Hawks have an excellent shot at reaching as high as the third seed.
It’s true that a second round exit—again—is probably their ceiling, but the fact remains the team got younger, more athletic, and cut a massive amount of salary, setting them up for the future in a way that wasn’t possible with Johnson clogging over a third of the salary cap with what was thought to be an untradeable contract.
Here’s why I like this team.
First of all, I think Josh Smith is going to have an absolute monster season. With Johnson gone, this is officially Smith’s team—a role he seems to be openly embracing. While he had voiced his desire to be traded in the past, his tune has changed with the changes the team made in the offseason.
Smith had an all-star caliber 2012 campaign (a travesty he didn’t make it over Johnson), and was a top-10 forward in blocks, steals per minute, assist rate, pure point rating, points per minute, defensive rebound rate, and PER. He’s in the absolute prime of his career (will turn 27 in December), will be a free agent after the season, and is looking to earn himself a max contract. With Johnson and Williams gone, the money is now there.
Most of the criticism against Smith throughout his career has been his decision-making and poor shot selection (ill-advised long twos and threes), an issue that he seemed to have fixed three years ago when he took only seven triples. With all of the high quality shooters and scorers on the Hawks now, it’s hard to imagine him continuing to shoot wayward threes as often as he did the last two seasons. He even acknowledged the massive upgrade of shooters around him, and with his ability to pass, it’s possible he could lead the team in assists.
While Teague and Harris are not known for their ability to find open teammates, both are absolute terrors in the open court and are excellent at getting to the hoop and finishing. The 24-year-old Teague has the talent to be a top-10 point guard and seems ready to take the next step in his development now that the ball no longer has to go through Johnson. As stated above, Harris has improved his ball security and distribution skills, posting a career best assist-to-turnover ratio last year.
And then there’s the return of Al Horford. While he came back for the playoffs last year, 2013 should see him continue his steady improvement. Horford does excellent work on the glass, is mobile on defense, and has an underrated mid-range game. He’s also a terrific high post distributor who moves the ball well. And nobody is talking about him. Andrew Bynum is all the rage in the East, but I could see Horford, who is only 26, having a better season than the former Laker. While Bynum will win the popularity contest (as an all-star starter), Horford could turn out to be the more valuable commodity to his team.
Basically, I believe the Hawks will move the ball much better now that Iso Joe has been ripped from the Hawks’ playbook. In addition, there will be plenty of spacing with the shooters available.
Defensively, this team will survive and thrive with constant activity, starting with pressure defense up top with Teague and Harris forcing the issue (think a poor man’s version of Rajon Rondo/Avery Bradley). Once upon a time, Harris was an elite defender. No idea if Larry Drew can bring that out of him again, but it should be noted that Harris is playing for a new contract. Horford provides mobile defensive work in the paint and Smith is active and adept at erasing shots. Morrow is a poor defender, but Korver has transformed himself into a terrific team defender (thanks Tom Thibodeau). Plus, the bench has some solid defenders in Stevenson, Damion James, Ivan Johnson, and Zaza Pachulia, who doesn’t block shots, but is physical and takes charges.
The team may struggle against elite size—like the Lakers—but then again, what team won’t struggle against the Lakers size?
Finally, this team is deep—like 12 players deep, like two-deep at every position and then some. And that depth isn’t an illusion like former Hawks GM Robert Sund stated last year. This depth has substance.
The bench depth starts with Williams who was an integral part of the Sixers’ run to the second round last year. And while he’s undersized for a two-guard, offensively he was one of the five or six most prolific shooting guards last season. Pachulia is arguably the East’s best backup center. Teague and Harris are both starting caliber point guards. And it’s a real possibility that Jenkins plays well enough to insert himself into the Korver, Morrow, Stevenson rotation.
The Hawks are a bit undersized, but if they stay healthy and play to their strengths—athleticism, transition offense, and three point shooting—then Atlanta has the necessary talent to improve on last season, even if the end result turns out to be the same.
Predictions: Hawks earn fourth seed in the East. Lose in the second round. Josh Smith becomes an all-star by averaging 19 ppg, 9 rpg, 4.5 apg, 3.5 bpspg (blocks + steals), and shooting 49 percent.
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