Be Wary of Falling in Love with Rockets

Heading out of the All-Star break and following their trades of their two most prolific power forwards at the deadline, talk focused around the Houston Rockets falling out of the playoff picture and being overtaken by a suddenly (and at times miraculously) hot Lakers team that has been led by Kobe Bryant, a man clearly on a mission.

But with a win against Golden State on Friday night, the Rockets are instead pushing their way towards the front of the pack, now only a game behind overtaking the Warriors for the sixth seed.

The two teams meet up again next weekend, but face vastly different competition over the next nine days. The Rox will only play three times, two games against the lottery-bound Phoenix Suns and a game against the injury-depleted Minnesota Timberwolves. The Warriors, on the other hand, face a surging Milwaukee Bucks squad that has won four of its last five games, a struggling but still tough New York Knicks team, a winnable game against Detroit, and a very tough matchup against the Chicago Bulls.

By the time the squads meet back up, it’s very possible that the Rockets will have already overtaken the Dubs.

Did the Rockets Really Win Their Trade?

Typically, whenever I set out to analyze trades, I try to put myself in the shoes of the general managers that are making them. Back in 2008, the popular belief was that Memphis Grizzlies’ general manager Chris Wallace had just completed the worst trade in NBA history by shipping off then one-time all-star Pau Gasol to the Los Angeles Lakers for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, Aaron Mckie, the draft rights to Marc Gasol, and two first round picks that ended up as Darrell Arthur and Greivis Vasquez. I felt differently. The team has made several missteps along the way—trading Kevin Love for OJ Mayo while also bringing on Antoine Walker and Marko Jaric, signing Hasheem Thabeet over pretty much anyone else in that draft, trading Kyle Lowry for only a late first round draft pick, trading Vasquez for Quincy Pondexter—but things have turned out for the better based on that trade.

The cap flexibility gained from Brown’s expiring contract allowed Memphis to sign Zach Randolph, while Marc Gasol has blossomed into a better player than his brother, and one of the three or four best centers in the league. The duo now forms the NBA’s most fearsome front court. The pick from the Lowry trade produced DeMarre Carrol, who was later traded for Shane Battier, who played a key role (including hitting the game winner of the franchise’s first playoff victory) in guiding the Grizzlies past the Spurs and into the second round of the playoffs in 2011.

All that to say, we won’t really know how any of the trades that went down yesterday will affect each team moving forward. The popular thought today, could be ultimately proven wrong a couple years down the road.

Which brings me to the Sacramento and Houston Deal in which Houston received: Thomas Robinson, Francisco Garcia, and Tyler Honeycutt. Sacramento received: Patrick Patterson, Cole Aldrich, Toney Douglas, and $1 million